WASHINGTON -- Americans stepped up their shopping last month, spending more online and buying more cars, evidence that consumers can still drive the economy's growth.
Still, the details of the report were weaker than expected, economists said, and several analysts reduced their forecasts for fourth-quarter growth. JPMorgan economists lowered their forecast to an annual rate of just 1.25% from 1.75%.
The Commerce Department said Friday that retail sales rose 0.3% in October, rebounding from a 0.3% drop the previous month. Sales increased 3.1% compared with a year ago.
The figures suggest higher tariffs on many consumer products imported from China, imposed in early September, as well as broader trade uncertainty, did not completely hold Americans back from spending. Consumers remain mostly optimistic and willing to make large purchases, such as autos, even as businesses cut back on investment and exports stall.
The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low and wages are rising, encouraging more shopping.
But there were several weak spots in the report. Spending at restaurants and bars fell 0.3%, the biggest drop in almost a year. That category is seen as highly discretionary and a decent sign of consumers' health. And clothing stores reported a sharp 1% drop in sales, while furniture, home and garden, and electronics and appliances stores all reported declines.
"Consumers are neither fearful nor exuberant," but "steady as she goes," said Julia Coronado, an economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.
Diane Swonk, chief economist for Grant Thornton, said higher tariffs on furniture may have held back sales. With home purchases rising in the past year, furniture sales could be expected to have moved higher. But they fell a sharp 0.9% last month.
E-commerce is still gaining steam. Sales in a category that mostly includes online and catalog shopping jumped 0.9% in October and 14.3% from a year earlier.
Sales at auto dealers also rose, increasing 0.5%. Gas stations reported a 1.1% jump in sales, which mostly reflected higher prices. Grocery stores and general merchandise retailers, which includes stores such as Walmart and Target, also said sales increased.
Walmart reported a strong sales increase in its third quarter Thursday, boosted by a huge 41% increase in online sales.
The economy has slowed since earlier this year, with growth clocking in at just 1.9% in the July-September quarter, down from 3.1% in the first three months of the year. Most analysts partly blame the weakening on uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China trade war, which has caused many companies to delay plans to invest and expand. That's left consumers as the principal drivers of growth.
"It's not screaming softness on the consumer but the consumer is gradually fading," said Stephen Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale. "We're more dependent on the consumer than ever in this expansion, and we're getting some signs the consumer is slowing."
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. economy is a "star performer" and expressed confidence that it would keep expanding at a moderate pace, with few signs of bubbles or other weaknesses appearing.
Signs that the U.S. and China may soon reach the first stage of a trade deal has also helped soothe financial markets, pushing up stock prices and bond yields.
A separate report Friday from the New York Fed showed that U.S. manufacturing output slumped in October by the most in six months as an autoworkers' strike at General Motors curtailed vehicle production and the trade war continued to weigh on other factories.
The 0.6% decline in output followed a 0.5% decrease the previous month. Excluding the 7.1% drop in motor vehicle output, which was the largest since January, factory production decreased a more modest 0.1% for a second month.
Total industrial production, which also includes output at mines and utilities, slumped 0.8% in October, the largest setback since May 2018.
The data is consistent with other reports showing cracks in the factory sector as producers grapple with sluggish global demand, slower business investment and the trade war. The Institute for Supply Management's gauge contracted three straight months, while a separate index showed global manufacturing shrank in October for a sixth month.
All major market groups, including consumer goods and business equipment, reported declines in output for at least a second month.
Factory production may rebound next month as the striking United Auto Workers reached an agreement with GM late in October. Overall the strike cost the company nearly $3 billion and lasted 40 days.
Aside from the slump in automaker output, production also retreated at makers of computers, electrical equipment, chemicals, apparel and fabricated metals.
Capacity utilization, measuring the amount of a plant that is in use, fell to 76.7% from 77.5%. Capacity utilization at manufacturers decreased to 74.7%, the weakest since September 2017.
Information for this article was contributed by Christopher Rugaber of The Associated Press and by Katia Dmitrieva and Reade Pickert of Bloomberg News.
Business on 11/16/2019