Steve Carlisle, president of General Motors North America, at the North American International Auto ... [+]
The U.S. auto industry is heading into 2021 with a number of “tailwinds,” said Steve Carlisle, president of General Motors, North America.
“Interest rates are favorable, and we can see fiscal stimulus coming,” he said at the American Financial Services Association Vehicle Finance Conference this week.
“Vaccines are improving almost daily. There’s an enormous rate of savings. There’s a lot of great product. So, I go beyond a bit of cautious optimism,” he said at the conference, which was held online.
Carlisle said he expects U.S. auto sales in 2021 in the range of “mid- to high-16 million.” That would be a big improvement over 2020, when sales were about 14.6 million cars and trucks, but still short of the 2019 total of almost 17.1 million.
Nevertheless, auto sales in 2020 finished a lot better than analysts feared, back in March and April 2020. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, showrooms representing more than half the previous year’s sales total were closed for several weeks, with vehicle sales limited to online-only in many states.
“A year ago, in another couple of weeks, we were looking over the precipice,” Carlisle recalled. His remarks at the AFSA conference were posted on Feb. 24.
While he was optimistic about auto sales in 2021, it’s fair to say this year could be off to a better start, Carlisle said. “Arguably, it’s been a pretty bumpy start to the year,” he said. “We’ve got snow and ice. We still have COVID. There was an earthquake in Japan. There’s a semiconductor shortage globally.”
The semiconductor shortage has served to perpetuate a shortage of new-vehicle inventory, which began with factory shutdowns last spring. GM got an early start on the shortage, because of a strike in September and October 2019.
The upside for the industry, if not for bargain-hunting consumers, is that the shortage has helped drive higher prices.
“What we learned last year was we perform very well with lean inventories,” Carlisle said. “Which means business has been very profitable for dealers and good for us.”
