'Government should see this picture as shameful' – economist on Azerbaijan's import-export balance

Azerbaijan’s import-export balance

Opposition politician and chairman of the Republican Alternative party, economist Natig Jafarli, analysed official import/export statistics for January–February 2025 and criticised Azerbaijan’s negative trade balance, where imports exceed exports.

Commenting on the figures, the economist noted that Azerbaijan is “losing 6–0” in its trade balance with post-Soviet states.

Natig Jafarli writes: “It turns out that the country is unable to produce and sell competitive goods to these states.

Oil and gas revenues partially offset this gap. However, given the decline in production volumes and oil prices, these funds will not be sufficient in the future.

The government should see this situation as shameful, yet the economic bloc continues to make statements that are not backed by real figures. Meanwhile, in economics, it is not statements but the language of numbers that matters most.

Azerbaijan’s main export products remain oil and gas. But to most post-Soviet countries (except Georgia), these products are either not supplied at all or exported in very small quantities. This further highlights the weaknesses in the country’s trade relations.

A negative trade balance is a sign of shortcomings in the government’s economic policy.

To develop the economy, it is essential to focus on producing and exporting competitive goods. Otherwise, as oil and gas revenues decline, the vulnerable sides of the economy will become even more apparent.”

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Key takeaways from import-export statistics

An analysis of import and export figures for January–February 2025 leads to the following conclusions, according to Natig Jafarli:

● Azerbaijan’s imports significantly exceed its exports. In particular, imports from Russia are five times higher than exports, which is a serious negative factor for the country’s trade balance.

● In trade with CIS countries, imports account for 31.29%, while exports make up only 3.82%.

● Imports from other countries represent 49.55% of total trade..

● The low level of exports to post-Soviet countries points to Azerbaijan’s difficulty in producing competitive goods. At the same time, high import volumes from these states indicate the strong presence of their products in the Azerbaijani market.

● Non-oil exports account for just 9.43% of total exports. This highlights the lack of economic diversification, the weak export potential of non-oil products, and the limited range of goods produced domestically.

● The threefold increase in Uzbekistan’s exports to Azerbaijan may suggest some regional economic engagement. However, overall trade relations with post-Soviet countries remain underdeveloped..

Conclusions

These figures reflect the structural problems within Azerbaijan’s economic model.

As a large share of the country’s foreign trade is based on oil and gas, the economy remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global energy market, posing risks to long-term stability.

The weak performance of non-oil exports indicates Azerbaijan’s limited competitiveness in external markets and a high level of dependence on them. The government’s insufficient investment in the non-oil sector has led to stagnation and a declining export capacity.

The current situation underscores the urgent need for change, so that Azerbaijan can secure a stronger position both regionally and globally. This requires comprehensive reforms in the country’s economic policy and strategic direction.

Diversifying the economy would ensure greater stability and long-term success.