A recent report from a notable investment bank says newly imposed 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and components could decimate the 2035 earnings of European automaker Stellantis by as much as 75%. The automaker currently relies heavily on North American factories outside the US for that respective market, which contributes to a massive portion of its annual sales.
The impact of the Trump administration’s newly imposed 25% tariffs continues to echo throughout the global automotive industry. We are just starting to get a taste of their potential impact on many foreign OEMs, even those who assemble vehicles sold in the US in North America.
Starting April 3rd, 2025, the Trump administration plans to impose 25% tariffs on all cars and light trucks assembled outside the US and on all foreign auto parts. Still, the US government is extending the exemption to parts from Canada and Mexico under the USMCA free trade agreement until May 3rd.
Thus, many foreign automakers, like Stellantis, are staring down the barrel of a devastating earnings year, even though many of its vehicles sold in the US aren’t even built in Europe but in Canada and Mexico. A new report states that Stellantis’ 2025 earnings could stumble as far down as 75%, potentially putting the European auto conglomerate into a dire financial situation if nothing changes.
Stellantis’ 2025 earnings face huge hurdle from US tariffs
As Automotive News Europe shared, the report from investment bank Jeffries outlined a trying earnings year for Stellantis. The bank pointed out that Stellantis’ US sales rely heavily on vehicles assembled at facilities in Canada and Mexico, in addition to approximately 58,000 additional vehicles imported from Europe in 2024. This includes marques like Maserati, Alfa Romeo, and Jeep.
Based on Stellantis’ 2024 financial and vehicle sales results, Jeffries stated that the incoming tariffs would have cost the company $7.1 billion in earnings and estimates its earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) will be $9.3 billion.
Stellantis was already on shaky ground before the threat of tariff imports as the automaker’s 2024 EBIT tumbled by 64% after a September profit warning that led to the resignation of outspoken and many times dubious CEO Carlos Tavares. Company chairman John Elkann has taken over in the interim while Stellantis looks to announce Tavares’ successor in the first half of this year.
A significant threat to earnings will undoubtedly play a role in whom Stellantis selects to take the helm and navigate a global vehicle market that is becoming more cut-throat and competitive (with a dash of nationalism) every day, stoked by Trump and his Harem Guard Elon Musk.
Top comment by BCGeiger
Part of the issue is that the average person when they hear “Stellentis” won’t know what that is. In addition to Fiat and a few European brands it’s the parent company for Jeep, Chrysler, and Dodge.
Buh Bye Mopar.
Aside from manufacturing footprints in Europe, Mexico, and Canada, Stellantis operates facilities on US soil, contributing to roughly 61% of its branded vehicles sold there. However, Jeffries pointed out that those sites are significantly underutilized (52%) due to declining sales rates among US consumers.
Stellantis could pivot production from Mexico and Canada to the US if necessary and utilize a current build capacity of 1.3 million vehicles to avoid tariffs. Still, a transition of that scale is more easily said than done. During a recent call with analysts, Elkann spoke about looming tariffs and their effect on earnings, as well as the entire American Automotive Policy Council, of which Stellantis is a member. He reiterated the message delivered by the council:
(It) made a very clear statement about the dialogue ongoing with the Trump administration, and the importance of the competitiveness of the integrated North American automotive sector. But more importantly, the concern on the affordability of our products, our products made in America, and the implications on demand, on what will this uncertainty mean for demand in the United States of America.
Elkann relayed a commitment to the US administration’s vision to bring more work to the US but wants to ensure those measures don’t necessitate automakers raising MSRPs to remain competitive (and not go bankrupt in the process).
Stellantis’ stock is its lowest in years following the tariff announcement, so whoever takes over as CEO will have their work cut out for them in 2025 and beyond.
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