Sweden’s prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, has announced his government’s plans to increase defense spending to 3.5% of the country’s economy, marking Sweden’s biggest military expansion since the Cold War.
He said the decision was based on Europe’s changing security situation after Russia’s war on Ukraine three years ago, as well as uncertainty about the future of its ties with the U.S.
“I don’t want us to act in a way that undermines the possibility of transatlantic cooperation. But we also cannot assume or take for granted that the United States will continue to act in Europe as it has over the past 80 years,” Prime Minister Kristersson said.
This push to strengthen Sweden’s military comes just over a year after the country joined NATO, ending its long-standing neutrality due to growing concerns about Russia’s actions.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized European nations in the NATO alliance for not spending enough on defense, and his administration has become increasingly vocal against many of America’s traditional allies in Europe.
In response, European leaders have moved to strengthen their security by increasing military spending. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has urged member countries to allocate 3% of their GDP to defense, up from the previous target of at least 2%.
The Swedish government announced that Sweden plans to increase its defense spending by 300 billion Swedish kronor (29.8 billion U.S. dollars) through 2035, aiming to raise defense expenditures to 3.5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030.
Sweden’s military strengthening marks a turning point for Scandinavian security, marking a departure from its traditional neutrality.
This transformation affects not only Sweden’s military readiness but also the security dynamics of the entire Nordic region, Europe, and Russia’s strategic calculations.
Sweden’s Military Expansion: Context and Details
Sweden’s military expansion is a direct response to a deteriorating security environment, particularly since Russia’s war with Ukraine. Swedish policymakers in the Swedish Social Democratic Party recognize that their traditional policy of nonalignment is no longer viable in a Europe where Russian military actions have become increasingly unpredictable.
In 2023, Sweden formally applied for NATO membership, and after overcoming initial opposition from Turkey and Hungary, it officially joined the alliance in 2024. With NATO’s security umbrella now covering Sweden, Stockholm has taken steps to modernize its military forces and integrate them into the alliance’s collective defense structure.
The Swedish Army is also undergoing a major restructuring, focusing on the rapid deployment of forces capable of defending key locations such as Gotland, a strategically vital island in the Baltic Sea.
In 2024, Sweden achieved a record-breaking milestone in its military equipment exports, reaching a total of US$2.9 billion. This figure represents a remarkable 63% growth compared to the previous year.
Strategic Importance Of Baltic & Scandinavian Regions
Sweden’s rearmament is significant because of its geographic location. The Baltic Sea is a key theater of competition between Russia and NATO, with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the three most vulnerable NATO members—relying heavily on reinforcements through the region in case of conflict. Sweden’s Gotland Island is particularly important, as it provides a dominant position for controlling sea and air routes in the Baltic.
A well-defended Gotland makes it far more difficult for Russia to project power against the Baltic states and complicates any potential military aggression.
For the broader Scandinavian region, Sweden’s military buildup adds a new layer of deterrence against Russian incursions. Norway, Finland, and Denmark have also increased their defense spending, and Sweden’s integration into NATO reinforces regional defense cooperation.
Finland, which shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, wants Sweden to take a bigger role in Scandinavian security.
The enhanced interoperability between Scandinavian militaries means that in the event of a crisis, Sweden can support its neighbors and receive support in return, creating a much more formidable regional defense posture.
How Russia Perceives Sweden’s Rearmament
From Russia’s perspective, Sweden’s military expansion and NATO membership are part of a broader pattern of Western encroachment on its sphere of influence.
Moscow has long viewed NATO’s eastward expansion as a security threat, and the addition of Sweden and Finland to the alliance further isolates Russia in the Baltic region.
During negotiations over German reunification in 1990, several Western leaders, including U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, assured Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO would not expand eastward. Baker famously stated that NATO would move “not one inch eastward” beyond its current borders.
In response, Russia has increased its own military presence in Kaliningrad, a heavily militarized exclave between Poland and Lithuania. Kaliningrad is home to advanced missile systems such as the Iskander-M, which can strike targets across the Baltic region, including Sweden.
Additionally, Russia has increased naval patrols in the Baltic Sea and conducted military exercises in the region. The Kremlin has also warned that Sweden’s NATO membership makes it a potential target in future confrontation.
Implications For NATO & European Security
Sweden’s rearmament is a strategic gain for NATO. It is a highly developed country with a strong defense industry led by Saab, a major producer of fighter jets, submarines, and radar systems.
Sweden brings valuable military capabilities to the alliance. The Swedish Air Force’s Gripen fighters are known for their ability to operate from dispersed locations, making them harder to target in a conflict scenario.
Sweden’s submarines, particularly the Gotland-class and future A26-class vessels, are among the most advanced diesel-electric submarines in the world. This gives NATO an edge in anti-submarine warfare against the Russian Navy.
Sweden’s integration into NATO also strengthens the alliance’s northern flank. The presence of NATO forces in Sweden and Finland allows for better coordination in defending the Arctic region, where Russia has been expanding its military presence.
Due to its strategic shipping routes and vast natural resources, the Arctic is becoming an increasingly contested space.
For Europe as a whole, Sweden’s military expansion reflects a broader trend of increased defense spending and strategic realignment. Other European nations are ramping up defense spending in response to the growing Russian threat.
This shift is a response to both Russian expansion and concerns about the reliability of the United States as a security partner, especially given political uncertainties in Washington. European leaders recognize that a strong regional defense capability is essential for long-term stability, and Sweden’s efforts align with this vision.
Potential Risks & Challenges
Despite Sweden’s military expansion’s clear benefits, there are challenges and risks associated with this transformation. One concern is the potential for escalation with Russia.
While Sweden’s integration into NATO is meant to enhance deterrence, Moscow could perceive these developments as a direct threat, leading to increased tensions and the possibility of miscalculations. The Baltic region is already a hotspot for military encounters, with Russian and NATO aircraft frequently intercepting each other in contested airspace.
While there is broad political consensus on the need for stronger defense capabilities, sustaining high levels of military expenditure could become difficult in the long term, particularly if economic conditions change.
Moscow’s immediate response is constrained by its ongoing war in Ukraine. However, the long-term security landscape in the Baltic region is becoming increasingly militarized. For NATO and Europe, Sweden’s rearmament is a welcome development that strengthens collective defense and enhances military readiness.
The broader implications of Sweden’s military expansion extend beyond the Nordic region. It reflects a larger trend of European nations taking greater responsibility for their own security in an era of geopolitical uncertainty.
- By: ET Newsdesk
- Mail us at: editor (at) eurasiantimes.com
