Pig industry boosted by rising consumer demand for UK pork

The 2024 analysis of imports suggested that due to British retail facings, demand for British pork was sustained, despite importations increasing slightly by 1%, with 789,300 tonnes of pig meat (including offal) coming into the country last year.

With importations particularly increasing at the peak demand points surrounding Christmas, AHDB reported that within the final quarter of last year (Oct – Dec), EU pig pricing fell substantially whilst UK pig prices only saw marginal movement.

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Andy McGowan, Joint General Manager of the United Pig Cooperative Both October and December recorded year-on-year increases of just over 4%, whilst November recorded virtually no change compared to 2023. This again points to positive retail trends, with demand for homegrown meat and an ever-growing health-conscious nation suggesting that shoppers will “buy British” during special seasons such as the festive period. With the increase in prices of both beef and lamb, out of season sales are also on the up.

Andy McGowan, joint general manager of the United Pig Cooperative reiterated this, stating that “January and February sales were very positive, pork being competitively priced in the UK, this helped with factors such as Germany being blocked from the market due to FMD.”

With consumption declining on the continent, UK exports may be subdued, the stable price in the country throughout 2024 making British pork rather uncompetitive within the European markets. According to AHDB the EU remains the UK’s largest destination for pig meat exports, receiving 42% of total volume (124,900 tonnes). With a decrease in demand, volumes have slipped year-on-year (-6400 tonnes). Ireland, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium account for 90% of UK shipments to the EU, with almost half of this made up of fresh and frozen pork.

The possibility of a growing Chinese market is a positive one for the UK, as exports to China have grown 7% year-on-year from 2023 to 2024, to 120,100 tonnes. This growth has been driven by offal, which made up 65% of total shipment volume. As the Chinese anti-dumping investigation into EU pork continues, this coming in retaliation against higher tariffs on imported electric vehicles, further decline in exports to the EU may arise, as higher tariffs imposed on the EU by China inevitably causing a surplus of European pork.

Whilst this may not affect the trade of offal, British fresh and frozen pork exports will be severely affected if this situation continues. Further trade with South Africa may placate this, as well as with the United States.

The ongoing friction between President Trump and the British government continues, with the shadow of trade tariffs ever present within negotiations. President Trump may come under pressure from his own farmers, as their fear grows of a repeat of the 2018 dispute resulting in the dilapidation of the American soybean and corn exports, however this cannot be a guarantee for a positive pork trade outlook between the US and the UK, as seemingly reactionary and bombastic policy making decisions appear from the Trump administration.

“Where countries continue to slap on tariffs, this has the potential to depress the global price. If we find ourselves in a situation with a lot of American pork in the market with nowhere to go this may result in the undercutting of UK exports”, said Mr McGowan.

With Foot and Mouth in Germany, markets arise for UK pork exports within South Korea. The Philippines continues to be a lucrative market for UK exports, trade increasing from in 2024 from 3100 tonnes to 20,400 tonnes, 77% of that made up of offal. Whist the Philippines battles with African swine fever, the UK benefits from reduced tariff rates on pig meat shipments as the Philippine government seeks to secure supply and keep consumer food costs down.

In terms of supply, AHDB predicts little change in 2025 vs 2024 for pig meat production, with clean pig kill supporting volumes rather than weights, and for the full year a forecast of a decline by 0.1%, to a total of 960,000 tonnes.

This is due to a number of producers exiting the industry through the first half of 2024, leading to a 3.1% decline in the UK female breeding herd. And yet, in the second half of last year, reports of on-farm investments and increasing demand at genetic firms suggested intent to up pig numbers. However, according to AHDB, the autumn budget on October 30 created uncertainty, dampening sentiment at the year end.

On this basis, only a slight increase in the UK female breeding herd is predicted for 2025 to 330,000 head, with only minor changes in the following years, numbers predicted to reach 2023 levels by 2027, dependant on net margins remaining in a positive position. “A decline of under 1% is basically nothing”, said Mr McGowan, “and with hopefully good weather and barbecues means a positive outlook."