Tesla’s US sales are worse than what is reported, here’s more accurate data

Tesla’s electric vehicle sales in the US are worse than what the media is reporting right now. That’s partly because Tesla is hiding its sales.

Here’s more accurate data.

Today, you might see many headlines about Tesla’s US sales based on Cox Automotive’s Q1 2025 US electric vehicle sales report.

The main problem with this report is that it is a complete estimate when it comes to Tesla, the biggest EV manufacturer in the US.

Of all the major automakers, Tesla is the only one that doesn’t break down sales by region or even model.

For comparison, here’s a Ford US sales report vs a Tesla global sales report (its only delivery report):

Because Tesla is so opaque with its sales, analysts often rely on reports like Cox’s, which are also estimates.

The Cox report cited in the media today claims that Tesla delivered 128,100 vehicles in the US in Q1 2025 – down 8.6% compared to Q1 2024.

That’s despite EV sales being up 10% overall in the first quarter.

Here’s the report:

Cox’s estimate looks quite high. The best way to figure out Tesla deliveries in the US is to take deliveries based on registration data in all other markets where Tesla sells vehicles in the world, which are quite accurate, and subtract that number from Tesla’s reported global deliveries.

For the first quarter, Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries globally, and Tesla registrations in all markets except the US and Canada totaled 212,024 vehicles (via TroyTeslike).

This would mean Tesla delivered about 124,657 vehicles in the US and Canada in Q1 2025.

That’s already about 3,500 fewer deliveries than Cox’s estimate, but it includes Canadian deliveries, which are also hard to estimate in the first quarter. It’s safe to assume that they are at about 5,000 units.

This means that Tesla is down closer to 15% than 8% in the US in Q1 2025.

Electrek’s Take

Yes, the Model Y changeover certainly affected Tesla’s performance in the US, but it’s clearly not the only factor at play.

Tesla ended the quarter with record inventory not seen in years. The automaker has no backlog of orders for the new Model Y. You can get one today in many regions of the US.

I think there are good reasons to worry about Tesla’s demand in the US. The main reason is the brand damage caused by Elon Musk, which mostly occurred in the second half of the first quarter.

The lack of backlogs for new Model Y orders is concerning.

I believe deliveries will be up from Q1 this quarter, but they will be down from Q2 2024, and it is more likely that Tesla’s deliveries will be down for the full year 2025 despite most analysts still believing Tesla will still grow this year.